The Question Of AIDS

The question, if AIDS has not spread in geometrically, then either the

spread is slowing down (among homosexuals), or we are being successful

in treating AIDS, or the *active* cases of AIDS is changing.

As we know, there is currently no cure for AIDS, as so far, the drug

treatments have done very little to prolong the life of AIDS sufferers.

Although some people have lived slightly longer than the average time

of 1-3 years after testing positive for AIDS anti-bodies, as the sheer

numbers of AIDS infected increase, we can expect to see some temporary

'successes' from time to time. However, AIDS is fatal - sooner or later.

Since it takes one AIDS infected person to infect another person,

and we can assume that only one person is infected by one other person

at a time, we would have to know how many person(s) an AIDS carrier

is capable of infecting (over a specific period of time), or at least

an average, and how *long* the AIDS carrier is capable of infecting

others. Then we would need to know how much "innoculant" is needed

to infect a person (there are no volunteers, I suspect), and the

resistance to infection. The CDC in Atlanta doesn't keep this kind

of data on-hand, as far as I know, so trying to speculate on why AIDS is

not spreading geometrically, for the most part is guess work.

We do have some hard data than can shed some light on the situation, but it

leaves a rather complex situation.

Heres some interesting information, this is based on data collected from

Jan.-Dec. each year, so it will NOT be corresponding with the previous figures

which run from Nov.-Nov. each year. This year is not complete, so the totals

will seem small, and the CDC report I will be using is dated November 14, 1988

- the same one (and it's previous year) that I have used throughout the

discussion.

Year NEW cases - Known deaths = Active Carriers

1981 290 267 23

1982 1,052 942 110

1983 2,893 2,615 278

1984 5,816 4,857 959

1985 10,707 8,589 2,118

1986 17,006 11,566 5,440

1987 23,666 11,183 12,483

1988 16,800 3,981 12,819 (this year not complete)

-------------------------------------------

totals 78,312 44,071+ 34,230

It should be noted....the reporting of deaths is incomplete, these are

KNOWN deaths, so there are probably many more left unreported.

The active carriers is increasing, so is the death rates. If everyone

lived longer than the apparent average of 1 or 2 years, we might see a faster

increase, possibly a four fold increase per year. But, since the carriers

die off as fast as they do, we probably won't ever see a doubling or

tripling every year. I would imagine the annual increases we see now do

speak for themselves inlight of the "lag" in the increase of active

AIDS carriers.

What is really the sad news is this:

Considering how many Active AIDS Carriers there are, look at how many

people they have managed to infect, figuring an incubation period of at

least one year. If for instance, we assume in 1984 there were somewhere

in the neighborhood of 900-1200 active AIDS carriers, the results for

1985 is 10,000 NEW AIDS CASES! That is a 1:10 ratio, not good at all.

Last year we have about 1:4.5 ratio, with this year probably coming in

around 1:2 ratio.

Before anyone says, "Ah Hah! See I told you so!"....

Let's remember that hemophiliacs are not spreading AIDS, it is not

easily spread Heterosexually (due to the different environment, the obvious

differences between a vagina and a rectum), and babies - but these are

the recipients of the deadly virus. It is also these groups that are

seeing increases. When we subtract these groups from the 'active carrier'

list, (since they are not spreading AIDS) what appeared to be a slow

down in the spread of AIDS among homosexuals, shows the growth the previous

numbers confirm. That was an increase of 5000 over the previous year for

homosexuals. Unfortunately, we can only make an educated guess which groups

of individuals are dieing and at what rates. It could very well be that

given the homosexual lifestyle, they DO pick up more diseases quicker and

easier, thereby dying faster. This would definately effect the rate

of active AIDS carriers, transmission rates, etc., but we don't have

any hard data on this from the CDC.

The percentage increases can mislead, but when we look at plain numbers,

like NEW cases this year - 265 Hemophiliacs compared to 15,489 Homosexuals

or 6,576 IV Drug users, well there isn't too much to compare.

Bill Bennett

This article originated on

The Salvation Online Network


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